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WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index

August 2026. Every component of the index fell. Fuel costs are hitting more businesses than tariffs are.

86.3 August 2026 index
−5.7vs. July (92.0)
+1.3vs. August 2025 (85.0)
−3.3vs. 12-month average (89.6)

What moved

All six components declined month over month, ranked by size of change.

Component August July Change
Plan to increase fixed investment32%39%−7
Say the economy has improved vs. a year ago18%23%−5
Expect profitability to improve47%51%−4
Plan to expand the workforce45%49%−4
Expect the economy to improve next year25%28%−3
Expect revenue to increase61%62%−1

The downside is moving faster than the headline numbers suggest: 40% now say conditions have worsened over the past year, up from 34%. 29% expect them to worsen further, up from 21%. Expected revenue declines rose to 14%, expected profit declines to 22% — a six-month high. Planned headcount cuts rose to 12%, also a six-month high.

Fuel and tariffs

Oil prices reach more businesses than the latest round of tariffs does. Most leaders are responding to both the same way — raising prices.

Fluctuating oil prices

70%

report at least a slight negative impact — 11% extreme, 32% moderate, 27% slight.

  • Raise prices or add a fuel surcharge
  • Absorb the cost and hold fees flat for now
  • Cut fuel and travel spend; consolidate trips and fleet

New tariffs

56%

expect some level of impact — 7% extreme, 26% moderate, 23% slight.

  • Raise prices and pass costs through
  • Wait and see — no direct hit or no lever to pull
  • Cut costs and protect margins

The full infographic

Ten pages, as published by Vistage.

Download the PDF Read the Vistage analysis
12-month trend of the WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index, ending at 86.3 in August 2026. All six index components declined in August 2026. Views of current economic conditions compared to a year ago, March through August 2026. Expectations for U.S. economic conditions over the next 12 months. Expected change in firm sales revenues over the next 12 months. Expected change in firm profitability over the next 12 months. Expected change in fixed expenditures over the next 12 months. Expected change in total employees over the next 12 months. Degree of tariff impact and what CEOs say they are doing about it. Degree of oil price impact and the top three ways owners are responding.

Method

Online survey of active U.S. Vistage members — CEOs and other key leaders — conducted August 3–10, 2026. 342 respondents, annual revenues of $1 million to $20 million. The index is favorable minus unfavorable responses across a standard question set, plus 100, anchored to June 2012 = 100. Full data set at the WSJ/Vistage data center.